[2026-11-03] eagle: work/projects/cpm-project-summary-2026-11-03.md
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@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ Internal metrics, keep out of public PRs. Task: [CPM: root-cause the stuck embed
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## What the project has achieved
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Goal: permanent stuck reports below 1% of DAU (0.2-0.5% = success). Permanent = no answer for 5 minutes, repeated or needed a reload.
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Goal: permanent failures below 1% of DAU (0.2-0.5% = success). Permanent = no answer for 5 minutes, repeated or needed a reload.
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### Now (macOS 1.214, iOS 7.244, Nov/2)
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@@ -22,11 +22,11 @@ Goal: permanent stuck reports below 1% of DAU (0.2-0.5% = success). Permanent =
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### Fixes shipped
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- [P3](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219643764290826?focus=true), [OS<26.6 limit](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1220003778559448?focus=true) – improves extension startup after a restart from up to 32 s → 0.1 s on iOS/macOS 26.6+ (lab tests). iOS 26.6+: "background missing" failures 8.2% → 0.3% of DAU (users with any failure 14.6% → 8.3%). Effect on permanent not measurable yet (one day, 90k users).
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- macOS: [pinned tab lost on window close](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219643712648486?focus=true), [tab merging](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218356681060823?focus=true) – real bugs fixed, UI tests added. They caused under 1% of stuck reports, about 3x fewer after the fix (macOS 1.211 → 1.213).
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- macOS: [pinned tab lost on window close](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219643712648486?focus=true), [tab merging](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218356681060823?focus=true) – real bugs fixed, UI tests added. They caused under 1% of permanent failures, about 3x fewer after the fix (macOS 1.211 → 1.213).
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- [P1](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219531810004072?focus=true) – recovery after a slow wake of the extension. Triggers for 19% of iOS and 3% of macOS daily users (Nov/2).
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- [P2](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219531810004072?focus=true) – retry after load error 6. Triggers for 1.7% of iOS and 0.2% of macOS daily users (Nov/2).
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- [Network process crash](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219531810004073?focus=true) – restart after the networking process crashes. Triggers for 6.6% of iOS and 4.2% of macOS daily users (Nov/2).
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- [State restoration race](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218744813699966?focus=true) – restored tabs wait up to 5 s for the extension to start before loading. Stuck restored tabs: iOS 1.32% → 0.52% → 0.06% of DAU, macOS 0.19% → 0.12% → 0.02% (before fix → with fix → now).
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- [State restoration race](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218744813699966?focus=true) – restored tabs wait up to 5 s for the extension to start. Init failures on restore, before → with fix: iOS 21.0% → 8.4% of DAU (Oct/8), 19.7% → 8.8% (Oct/13); macOS no clear change, 0.84% → 1.28% (Oct/8), 1.03% → 0.74% (Oct/13).
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### Hypotheses rejected
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@@ -42,20 +42,20 @@ Goal: permanent stuck reports below 1% of DAU (0.2-0.5% = success). Permanent =
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## Data now (% of DAU)
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Permanent stuck, daily trend (macOS 1.213 / iOS 7.243: Oct/26 → Nov/2; 1.214 / 7.244: Nov/2):
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Permanent failures, daily trend (macOS 1.213 / iOS 7.243: Oct/26 → Nov/2; 1.214 / 7.244: Nov/2):
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- macOS: 2.07% → 3.07% (Oct/27 peak) → 1.90%; 1.214: 1.89%.
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- iOS: 0.30% → 0.42% (Oct/27 peak) → 0.39%; 7.244: 0.44%.
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By group: permanent stuck now (1.214 / 7.244) and trend of all failures, permanent and recovered (Oct/26 → Nov/2 on 1.213 / 7.243 → Nov/2 on 1.214 / 7.244):
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By group: permanent failures now (1.214 / 7.244, % of DAU and share of all permanent in brackets) and trend of all failures, permanent and recovered (Oct/26 → Nov/2 on 1.213 / 7.243 → Nov/2 on 1.214 / 7.244):
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- Failure right after the system wakes the extension: macOS permanent 0.68%, failures 8.80% → 8.50% → 5.89%. iOS permanent 0.06%, failures 1.56% → 2.34% → 1.74%.
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- Tab not connected: macOS permanent 0.42%, failures 1.18% → 0.90% → 1.26%. Not seen on iOS.
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- Right after an extension update: macOS permanent 0.26%, failures 5.40% → 0.92% → 2.94%. iOS permanent 0.05%, failures 0.37% → 0.13% → 0.34%.
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- Right after a load: macOS permanent 0.19%, failures 2.73% → 3.41% → 1.73%. iOS permanent 0.18%, failures 1.86% → 2.21% → 2.54%.
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- Error 6: iOS permanent 0.08%, failures 0.50% → 1.32% → 0.67%. macOS about 0.
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- Background missing: macOS permanent 0.03%, failures 1.06% → 1.13% → **0.20%**. iOS permanent 0.01%, failures 0.63% → 6.90% → **0.27%**.
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- Other: macOS permanent 0.30%, failures 4.75% → 4.17% → 2.92%. iOS permanent 0.04%, failures 1.95% → 1.10% → 2.45%.
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- Failure right after the system wakes the extension: macOS permanent 0.68% (36% of permanent), failures 8.80% → 8.50% → 5.89%. iOS permanent 0.06% (15%), failures 1.56% → 2.34% → 1.74%.
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- Tab not connected: macOS permanent 0.42% (22%), failures 1.18% → 0.90% → 1.26%. Not seen on iOS.
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- Right after an extension update: macOS permanent 0.26% (14%), failures 5.40% → 0.92% → 2.94%. iOS permanent 0.05% (12%), failures 0.37% → 0.13% → 0.34%.
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- Right after a load: macOS permanent 0.19% (10%), failures 2.73% → 3.41% → 1.73%. iOS permanent 0.18% (42%), failures 1.86% → 2.21% → 2.54%.
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- Error 6: iOS permanent 0.08% (18%), failures 0.50% → 1.32% → 0.67%. macOS about 0.
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- Background missing: macOS permanent 0.03% (2%), failures 1.06% → 1.13% → **0.20%**. iOS permanent 0.01% (3%), failures 0.63% → 6.90% → **0.27%**.
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- Other: macOS permanent 0.30% (16%), failures 4.75% → 4.17% → 2.92%. iOS permanent 0.04% (10%), failures 1.95% → 1.10% → 2.45%.
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1.214 / 7.244 is one day of early adopters (macOS about 9k DAU, iOS 110k), a rough picture.
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