[2026-11-03] eagle: work/projects/cpm-project-summary-2026-11-03.md

work/projects/cpm-project-summary-2026-11-03.md

@@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ Goal: permanent failures below 1% of DAU (0.2-0.5% = success). Permanent = no an
 - [P1](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219531810004072?focus=true) – recovery after a slow wake of the extension. Triggers for 19% of iOS and 3% of macOS daily users (Nov/2).
 - [P2](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219531810004072?focus=true) – retry after load error 6. Triggers for 1.7% of iOS and 0.2% of macOS daily users (Nov/2).
 - [Network process crash](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219531810004073?focus=true) – restart after the networking process crashes. Triggers for 6.6% of iOS and 4.2% of macOS daily users (Nov/2).
-- [State restoration race](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218744813699966?focus=true) – restored tabs wait up to 5 s for the extension to start. Init failures on restore, before → with fix: iOS 21.0% → 8.4% of DAU (Oct/8), 19.7% → 8.8% (Oct/13); macOS no clear change, 0.84% → 1.28% (Oct/8), 1.03% → 0.74% (Oct/13).
+- [State restoration race](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218744813699966?focus=true) – restored tabs wait up to 5 s for the extension to start. Init failures on restore: iOS ~20% → ~8.5% of DAU, macOS no clear change.
 
 ### Hypotheses rejected
 
@@ -47,15 +47,23 @@ Permanent failures, daily trend (macOS 1.213 / iOS 7.243: Oct/26 → Nov/2; 1.21
 - macOS: 2.07% → 3.07% (Oct/27 peak) → 1.90%; 1.214: 1.89%.
 - iOS: 0.30% → 0.42% (Oct/27 peak) → 0.39%; 7.244: 0.44%.
 
-By group: permanent failures now (1.214 / 7.244, % of DAU and share of all permanent in brackets) and trend of all failures, permanent and recovered (Oct/26 → Nov/2 on 1.213 / 7.243 → Nov/2 on 1.214 / 7.244):
+By group, 1.214 / 7.244 on Nov/2. Values are % of DAU. The previous version is 1.213 / 7.243, failures on Oct/26 → Nov/2.
 
-- Failure right after the system wakes the extension: macOS permanent 0.68% (36% of permanent), failures 8.80% → 8.50% → 5.89%. iOS permanent 0.06% (15%), failures 1.56% → 2.34% → 1.74%.
-- Tab not connected: macOS permanent 0.42% (22%), failures 1.18% → 0.90% → 1.26%. Not seen on iOS.
-- Right after an extension update: macOS permanent 0.26% (14%), failures 5.40% → 0.92% → 2.94%. iOS permanent 0.05% (12%), failures 0.37% → 0.13% → 0.34%.
-- Right after a load: macOS permanent 0.19% (10%), failures 2.73% → 3.41% → 1.73%. iOS permanent 0.18% (42%), failures 1.86% → 2.21% → 2.54%.
-- Error 6: iOS permanent 0.08% (18%), failures 0.50% → 1.32% → 0.67%. macOS about 0.
-- Background missing: macOS permanent 0.03% (2%), failures 1.06% → 1.13% → **0.20%**. iOS permanent 0.01% (3%), failures 0.63% → 6.90% → **0.27%**.
-- Other: macOS permanent 0.30% (16%), failures 4.75% → 4.17% → 2.92%. iOS permanent 0.04% (10%), failures 1.95% → 1.10% → 2.45%.
+| Group | Platform | Failures | Share of all failures | Permanent | Share of all permanent | Failures, previous version |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| Init on wake | macOS | 5.89% | 39% | 0.68% | 36% | 8.80% → 8.50% |
+| Init on wake | iOS | 1.74% | 22% | 0.06% | 15% | 1.56% → 2.34% |
+| Tab not connected | macOS | 1.26% | 8% | 0.42% | 22% | 1.18% → 0.90% |
+| Init after extension update | macOS | 2.94% | 20% | 0.26% | 14% | 5.40% → 0.92% |
+| Init after extension update | iOS | 0.34% | 4% | 0.05% | 12% | 0.37% → 0.13% |
+| Init after load | macOS | 1.73% | 11% | 0.19% | 10% | 2.73% → 3.41% |
+| Init after load | iOS | 2.54% | 32% | 0.18% | 42% | 1.86% → 2.21% |
+| Error 6 | macOS | 0.11% | 1% | 0.01% | 1% | 0.14% → 0.17% |
+| Error 6 | iOS | 0.67% | 8% | 0.08% | 18% | 0.50% → 1.32% |
+| Background missing | macOS | **0.20%** | 1% | 0.03% | 2% | 1.06% → 1.13% |
+| Background missing | iOS | **0.27%** | 3% | 0.01% | 3% | 0.63% → 6.90% |
+| Other | macOS | 2.92% | 19% | 0.30% | 16% | 4.75% → 4.17% |
+| Other | iOS | 2.45% | 31% | 0.04% | 10% | 1.95% → 1.10% |
 
 1.214 / 7.244 is one day of early adopters (macOS about 9k DAU, iOS 110k), a rough picture.