[2026-11-03] eagle: work/projects/cpm-project-summary-2026-11-03.md

work/projects/cpm-project-summary-2026-11-03.md

@@ -21,10 +21,10 @@ Now (macOS 1.214, iOS 7.244, Nov/2):
 
 Fixes shipped:
 
-- [P3](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219643764290826?focus=true), [OS<26.6 limit](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1220003778559448?focus=true) – stable extension identity, avoids slow startup (up to 32 s in lab tests). iOS 26.6+ "background missing" failures 8.2% → 0.3% of DAU, but also fell on older iOS, so P3 is not proven as the cause.
+- [P3](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219643764290826?focus=true), [OS<26.6 limit](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1220003778559448?focus=true) – expected: the extension starts without delay after restarts (up to 32 s delay without it in lab tests). Flag on in 7.244+/1.214+. iOS 26.6+, transient: users with a failure 14.6% → 8.3% of DAU, "background missing" 8.2% → 0.3% (12x higher than older iOS before, now equal). Permanent: no improvement (0.29% → 0.48%). Early-adopter sample.
 - macOS: [pinned tab lost on window close](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219643712648486?focus=true), [tab merging](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218356681060823?focus=true) – real bugs fixed, UI tests added.
-- [P1/P2/P4](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219531810004072?focus=true) – recovery after wake and startup failures. Triggered 2,026 times on iOS, 89 on macOS (Oct/26). No visible drop in stuck reports.
+- [P1/P2/P4](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219531810004072?focus=true) – recovery after wake and startup failures. Triggered 2,026 times on iOS, 89 on macOS (Oct/26). Permanent: no visible drop.
-- [Network process crash](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219531810004073?focus=true) – restart after the networking process crashes. Triggered 476 times on iOS, 277 on macOS (Oct/26). No visible drop in stuck reports.
+- [Network process crash](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219531810004073?focus=true) – restart after the networking process crashes. Triggered 476 times on iOS, 277 on macOS (Oct/26). Permanent: no visible drop.
 - [State restoration race](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218744813699966?focus=true) – extension failing to start while tabs restore. Effect not measured.
 
 Causes proved by reproduction:
@@ -42,8 +42,8 @@ Hypotheses rejected:
 
 ## Fixes going public next week (Nov/9)
 
-- [Upgrade before loading](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1220004977087625?focus=true) – load the new extension version first on launch. Removes part of the failures right after an update (macOS 0.26% of DAU, iOS 0.05%).
+- [Upgrade before loading](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1220004977087625?focus=true) – load the new extension version first on launch. Removes part of the permanent failures right after an update (macOS 0.26% of DAU, iOS 0.05%).
-- [Error 6 restart](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219939142983214?focus=true) – restart the extension when a load error leaves it broken. Up to 0.08% on iOS, negligible on macOS.
+- [Error 6 restart](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219939142983214?focus=true) – restart the extension when a load error leaves it broken. Up to 0.08% of DAU permanent on iOS, negligible on macOS.
 - Together: macOS 1.89% → about 1.6%, iOS 0.44% → about 0.3-0.35%. Estimates, upper bounds.
 
 ## Data now (% of DAU, Nov/2)
@@ -58,34 +58,20 @@ One day, early adopters, macOS about 9k DAU: a rough picture.
 
 ## Plan
 
-Cleanup, this week:
+This week, cleanup:
 
-- [Feature flags cleanup](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1220159402040629?focus=true) (task is empty in Asana, content below). Registry tasks per flag:
+- [Feature flags cleanup](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1220159402040629?focus=true):
-  - Remove the fix and the flag, they did not work or never ran:
+  - Remove fix and flag (did not work or never ran): [cpmBackgroundGraveyardTreatment](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218860893478440?focus=true), [cpmLateBackgroundDocumentRecovery](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219588497257482?focus=true), [cpmMessagingHangRecovery](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218855001659655?focus=true), [cpmBackgroundLoadRecovery](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219701603183698?focus=true).
-    - [cpmBackgroundGraveyardTreatment](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218860893478440?focus=true): deallocation race fix, never activated.
+  - Remove with the diagnostics: [cpmDiagnosticsRecorder](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218785444896174?focus=true), [cpmBackgroundDelegateProxy](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218782530802146?focus=true).
-    - [cpmLateBackgroundDocumentRecovery](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219588497257482?focus=true): late page reload, default off, 0 fires.
+  - Keep the fix, remove the failsafe flag: [cpmNetworkProcessRecovery](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219701603183695?focus=true), [cpmStableBaseURL](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219728649844711?focus=true), [webExtensionSharedPinnedTabWindowClose](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219660990760563?focus=true), [webExtensionStateRestorationGate](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218931841045393?focus=true), [cpmBackgroundLoadRestart](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219970564251181?focus=true) (after Nov/9 data).
-    - [cpmMessagingHangRecovery](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218855001659655?focus=true): reload on the stuck signal, 46% still no response; decide keep or remove.
+- [Pixel data cleanup](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1220159402040630?focus=true): remove the temporary pixels and episode parameters that only served the investigation.
-    - [cpmBackgroundLoadRecovery](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219701603183698?focus=true): wake and retry recovery, no measurable effect.
-  - Remove the diagnostics flags together with the diagnostics layer:
-    - [cpmDiagnosticsRecorder](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218785444896174?focus=true): recorder and unresponsive token.
-    - [cpmBackgroundDelegateProxy](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218782530802146?focus=true): delegate proxy for diagnostics.
-  - Keep the fix, remove the failsafe flag once its effect is measured:
-    - [cpmNetworkProcessRecovery](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219701603183695?focus=true): network restart.
-    - [cpmStableBaseURL](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219728649844711?focus=true): stable origin; flag state is not visible in pixels, check the remote config first.
-    - [webExtensionSharedPinnedTabWindowClose](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219660990760563?focus=true): P5.
-    - [webExtensionStateRestorationGate](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218931841045393?focus=true): session restoration race.
-    - [cpmBackgroundLoadRestart](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219970564251181?focus=true): error 6 restart, after Nov/9 data.
-- [Pixel data cleanup](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1220159402040630?focus=true) (task is empty in Asana, content below):
-  - Remove the treatment pixels that only say "applied": background_wake, background_load_retry, install/upgrade readiness, late_document_reload, network_process_recovery_applied, startup_response_missing.
-  - Remove the temporary episode parameters that only served the investigation (bg_events and the other debug fields), after the new metrics are live.
 
-Metrics, next two weeks:
+Next, metrics:
 
-- Permanent small set: one episode report with a fixed format, rates against DAU, a sample of healthy navigations as baseline. Old and new formats published together for one release to keep the trend. Added to the health indicators dashboard. Task to create.
+- Permanent breakage metrics: a small fixed set, rates against DAU, added to the health indicators dashboard. Task to create.
-- Extension lifecycle metrics to diagnose the wake problem: where the startup message between the page and the browser stops, plus a background state check when a failure is reported. Needs a privacy review and extension and app releases, data in 1-2 release cycles. Task to create.
+- Extension lifecycle metrics: find where the startup message stops, to diagnose the wake failures. Needs privacy review and releases, data in 1-2 release cycles. Task to create.
 - Data check of the Nov/9 fixes: [Analyze attribution data after stage 3](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1220159402040627?focus=true).
 
-Decide later:
+Open:
 
-- Mitigations that do not need the cause: retry the init from the page when no answer arrives, keep-warm A/B for the background.
+- No fix for macOS wake failures and tab not connected. If the new metrics show nothing actionable, close the project and reset the target.
-- "Tab not connected" has no fix. Failures right after a wake will not be solved without the new metrics. If they show nothing actionable, close the project and reset the target.