[2026-11-03] eagle: work/projects/cpm-project-summary-2026-11-03.md

work/projects/cpm-project-summary-2026-11-03.md

@@ -10,25 +10,18 @@ status: draft
 
 Internal metrics, keep out of public PRs. Task: [CPM: root-cause the stuck embedded extension messaging](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/project/72649045549333/task/1216761517055116?focus=true). Details: [[cpm-post-release-analysis-2026-10-27]], [[cpm-status-2026-10-15]].
 
-Goal: permanent stuck reports below 1% of DAU (0.2-0.5% counts as success).
-
 ## What the project has achieved
 
 Success criteria: permanent stuck reports below 1% of DAU (0.2-0.5% counts as success). Permanent = no response for 5 minutes, confirmed by a repeat or a reload.
 
-Progress against it (1.213 / 7.243 days 1-2 → 1.214 / 7.244 day 1):
+Progress against it (now = 1.214 / 7.244, Nov/2):
 
-- iOS: 0.43% → 0.44% of DAU. Inside the target.
-- macOS: 2.87% → 1.89% of DAU (any failure 28.5% → 15.1%). Target not reached yet. Nov/9 fixes bring it to about 1.6%.
-
-Breakage measurement, built and corrected:
-
-- Production telemetry for the stuck extension: one episode report with failure groups, tab scope, repeat count, and rates against DAU. Before it we could not separate stuck from recovered failures or attribute a cause. [Improve telemetry](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219531810004069?focus=true), [TD: failure pixels attribution](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218619301158188?focus=true).
-- Error pages were reported as breakages on macOS. Fixed, so the macOS figure is now accurate: any failure 28.5% → 15.1%, permanent 2.87% → 1.89% of DAU. [Fix false-positive breakage reports for error pages](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1220003778559452?focus=true).
+- iOS: 0.44% of DAU (0.43% on 7.243). Inside the target.
+- macOS: 1.89% of DAU. Target not reached yet. Nov/9 fixes should bring it to about 1.6% (estimate, upper bound).
 
 Breakage fixes shipped, with what each did:
 
-- Stable extension origin ([P3: stable baseURL fix](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219643764290826?focus=true), [Disable stable baseURL fix for OS<26.6](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1220003778559448?focus=true), OS 26.6+): removes a 1.5 to 32 s startup blackout after an origin change. iOS 26.6+ startup-missing and no-view reports down over 90%.
+- Stable extension origin ([P3: stable baseURL fix](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219643764290826?focus=true), [Disable stable baseURL fix for OS<26.6](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1220003778559448?focus=true), OS 26.6+): in a lab reproduction an origin change delays extension startup by 1.5 to 32 s depending on cache size, a stable origin by 0.1 s. Not measured in production. iOS 26.6+ startup-missing and no-view reports are down over 90% vs 7.243 (cohort comparison, P3 state not visible in the pixels).
 - macOS pinned tab lost on window close ([P5: pinned tab after windowDidClose](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219643712648486?focus=true)) and tab merging ([Fix Tab Merging causing CPM failure](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218356681060823?focus=true)): reproduced and fixed. P5 tests 9 pass with fix → 5 expected failures with it off → 27 pass.
 - Wake and startup recovery ([P1&P2[&P4]: Fix init loss on background unload](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219531810004072?focus=true)): applied to 2,026 iOS / 89 macOS episodes on Oct/26.
 - Network process restart ([Fix CPM breakage on network process crash](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219531810004073?focus=true)): applied 476 iOS / 277 macOS times on Oct/26.
@@ -37,7 +30,7 @@ Breakage fixes shipped, with what each did:
 Causes proved by reproduction:
 
 - iOS error-6 loop: stale failed background ([WebExtensions breakage harness](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219531810004071?focus=true)). Fixed by the Nov/9 error 6 restart.
-- Origin change cleaning the cache before startup (fixed by P3).
+- Origin change delaying extension startup (lab reproduction with real cache sizes; production impact not measured).
 - macOS P6: a tab without a controller never answers. 0.42% of DAU, no fix yet.
 
 Hypotheses tested and rejected:
@@ -62,7 +55,7 @@ Hypotheses tested and rejected:
 One day, early adopters, macOS has about 9k DAU. Treat as a rough picture.
 
 - Permanent stuck = no response for 5 minutes, confirmed by a repeat or a reload. Browser-wide = 2+ tabs, one-tab = single tab.
-- macOS: any failure 15.1%, permanent 1.89%. The earlier 28.5% / 2.87% on 1.213 included error pages, so the drop is the metric fix. Mature 1.213 is also at ~1.9%.
+- macOS: any failure 15.1%, permanent 1.89%.
   - Browser-wide 1.22%, one-tab 0.68%.
   - Idle wake 0.68%, tab not connected (P6) 0.42%, other 0.30%, extension updated 0.26%, recent load 0.19%.
 - iOS: any failure 8.0%, permanent 0.44% (0.39% on 7.243 days 1-2).