[2026-11-03] eagle: work/projects/cpm-project-summary-2026-11-03.md
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Internal metrics, keep out of public PRs. Task: [CPM: root-cause the stuck embedded extension messaging](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/project/72649045549333/task/1216761517055116?focus=true). Details: [[cpm-post-release-analysis-2026-10-27]], [[cpm-status-2026-10-15]].
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## What the project has achieved
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**What the project has achieved so far**
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Goal: permanent failures below 1% of DAU (0.2-0.5% = success). Permanent = no answer for 5 minutes, repeated or needed a reload.
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### Now (macOS 1.214, iOS 7.244, Nov/2)
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**Now (macOS 1.214, iOS 7.244, Nov/2)**
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- iOS: 0.44% of DAU (0.39% on 7.243, same day). Inside the target.
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- macOS: 1.89%. Above the target.
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- iOS: 0.44% of DAU (0.39% on 7.243, same day). Inside the target <<1%.
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- macOS: 1.89%. Above the target <<1%.
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### Fixes shipped
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**Fixes shipped**
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- [P3](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219643764290826?focus=true), [OS<26.6 limit](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1220003778559448?focus=true) – improves extension startup after a restart from up to 32 s → 0.1 s on iOS/macOS 26.6+ (lab tests). iOS 26.6+: "background missing" failures 8.2% → 0.3% of DAU (users with any failure 14.6% → 8.3%). Effect on permanent not measurable yet (one day, 90k users).
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- macOS: [pinned tab lost on window close](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219643712648486?focus=true), [tab merging](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218356681060823?focus=true) – real bugs fixed, UI tests added. They caused under 1% of permanent failures, about 3x fewer after the fix (macOS 1.211 → 1.213).
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@@ -28,19 +28,19 @@ Goal: permanent failures below 1% of DAU (0.2-0.5% = success). Permanent = no an
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- [Network process crash](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219531810004073?focus=true) – restart after the networking process crashes. Triggers for 6.6% of iOS and 4.2% of macOS daily users (Nov/2).
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- [State restoration race](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218744813699966?focus=true) – restored tabs wait up to 5 s for the extension to start. Init failures on restore: iOS ~20% → ~8.5% of DAU, macOS no clear change.
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### Hypotheses rejected
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**Hypotheses rejected**
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- [Deallocation race](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1217907325352233?focus=true) ([A/B](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218356681060819?focus=true), [flag](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219036128743441?focus=true)) – fix shipped behind a flag never turned on, no relation in the data.
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- [Reload on the stuck signal](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1218744813699968?focus=true) – 46% of macOS cases still got no answer.
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- [P4](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219531810004072?focus=true) – reload the page when the extension starts late. Off by default, never triggered in production.
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## Fixes going public next week (Nov/9)
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**Fixes going public next week (Nov/9)**
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- [Upgrade before loading](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1220004977087625?focus=true) – load the new extension version first on launch. Removes part of the permanent failures right after an update (macOS 0.26% of DAU, iOS 0.05%).
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- [Error 6 restart](https://app.asana.com/1/137249556945/task/1219939142983214?focus=true) – restart the extension when a load error leaves it broken. Up to 0.08% of DAU permanent on iOS, negligible on macOS.
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- Together: macOS 1.89% → about 1.6%, iOS 0.44% → about 0.3-0.35%. Estimates, upper bounds.
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## Data now (% of DAU)
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**Data now (% of DAU)**
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Permanent failures, daily trend (macOS 1.213 / iOS 7.243: Oct/26 → Nov/2; 1.214 / 7.244: Nov/2):
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@@ -49,25 +49,25 @@ Permanent failures, daily trend (macOS 1.213 / iOS 7.243: Oct/26 → Nov/2; 1.21
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By group on the new version (1.214 / 7.244, Nov/2), % of DAU. Trend is failures from the first day of the previous version (1.213 / 7.243, Oct/26) to the new version.
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| Group | Platform | Failures, % of DAU | % of all failures | Permanent, % of DAU | % of all permanent | Failures trend, % of DAU |
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| --------------------------- | -------- | --------- | ----------------- | --------- | ------------------ | ----------------- |
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| Init on wake | macOS | 5.89% | 39% | 0.68% | 36% | 8.80% → 5.89% |
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| Init on wake | iOS | 1.74% | 22% | 0.06% | 15% | 1.56% → 1.74% |
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| Tab not connected | macOS | 1.26% | 8% | 0.42% | 22% | 1.18% → 1.26% |
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| Init after extension update | macOS | 2.94% | 20% | 0.26% | 14% | 5.40% → 2.94% |
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| Init after extension update | iOS | 0.34% | 4% | 0.05% | 12% | 0.37% → 0.34% |
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| Init after load | macOS | 1.73% | 11% | 0.19% | 10% | 2.73% → 1.73% |
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| Init after load | iOS | 2.54% | 32% | 0.18% | 42% | 1.86% → 2.54% |
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| Error 6 | macOS | 0.11% | 1% | 0.01% | 1% | 0.14% → 0.11% |
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| Error 6 | iOS | 0.67% | 8% | 0.08% | 18% | 0.50% → 0.67% |
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| Background missing | macOS | **0.20%** | 1% | 0.03% | 2% | 1.06% → **0.20%** |
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| Background missing | iOS | **0.27%** | 3% | 0.01% | 3% | 0.63% → **0.27%** |
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| Other | macOS | 2.92% | 19% | 0.30% | 16% | 4.75% → 2.92% |
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| Other | iOS | 2.45% | 31% | 0.04% | 10% | 1.95% → 2.45% |
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| Group | Platform | Failures, % of DAU | % of all failures | Permanent, % of DAU | % of all permanent | Failures trend, % of DAU |
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| --------------------------- | -------- | ------------------ | ----------------- | ------------------- | ------------------ | ------------------------ |
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| Init on wake | macOS | 5.89% | 39% | 0.68% | 36% | 8.80% → 5.89% |
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| Init on wake | iOS | 1.74% | 22% | 0.06% | 15% | 1.56% → 1.74% |
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| Tab not connected | macOS | 1.26% | 8% | 0.42% | 22% | 1.18% → 1.26% |
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| Init after extension update | macOS | 2.94% | 20% | 0.26% | 14% | 5.40% → 2.94% |
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| Init after extension update | iOS | 0.34% | 4% | 0.05% | 12% | 0.37% → 0.34% |
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| Init after load | macOS | 1.73% | 11% | 0.19% | 10% | 2.73% → 1.73% |
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| Init after load | iOS | 2.54% | 32% | 0.18% | 42% | 1.86% → 2.54% |
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| Error 6 | macOS | 0.11% | 1% | 0.01% | 1% | 0.14% → 0.11% |
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| Error 6 | iOS | 0.67% | 8% | 0.08% | 18% | 0.50% → 0.67% |
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| Background missing | macOS | **0.20%** | 1% | 0.03% | 2% | 1.06% → **0.20%** |
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| Background missing | iOS | **0.27%** | 3% | 0.01% | 3% | 0.63% → **0.27%** |
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| Other | macOS | 2.92% | 19% | 0.30% | 16% | 4.75% → 2.92% |
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| Other | iOS | 2.45% | 31% | 0.04% | 10% | 1.95% → 2.45% |
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1.214 / 7.244 is one day of early adopters (macOS about 9k DAU, iOS 110k), a rough picture.
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## Plan
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**Plan**
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This week, cleanup:
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